Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring feature in American political life – but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics and bad blood between the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because each side – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
Here are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base has been demanding for months that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to show they can take back some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment that have featured the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.
The budget director has already announced the halting of government financial support for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become more long-lasting.